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Ranking the Most Risky Star Wars Movies in Development

ggreatest

2026-01-26

11 min read

A 2026 ranking of rumored Filoni-era Star Wars films, scored on originality, fit, pedigree and fan risk/reward—what to hype and what to wait on.

Hook: Why every Star Wars fan should care (and why this slate feels risky)

If you love Star Wars but feel flooded by rumors, half-announced films, and fan hot takes — you're not alone. Since Lucasfilm's leadership shake-up in late 2025 and Dave Filoni's elevation to co-president in January 2026, the franchise has pivoted fast. That promises fresh energy, but it also creates a discovery problem: which projects are worth caring about — and which are high-reward gambles that could fracture the fan base or sink at the box office?

Executive summary (most important first)

Bottom line: Some of the Filoni-era ideas circulating in industry chatter are creative and original — which is exciting — but several are also unusually risky for theatrical investment in 2026's market. This article ranks the top rumored Filoni-era projects by risk, scoring each on originality, franchise fit, director pedigree, and fan risk/reward. Use the scores to decide where to invest your hype, time, and — when the time comes — your ticket money.

“We are now in the new Dave Filoni era of Star Wars… Filoni will be handling the creative/production side of Star Wars from here.” — Paul Tassi, Forbes, Jan 16, 2026

Methodology: how we scored risk (and why you should care)

Each rumored project below was scored on four axes (0–10). Totals run to 40; a lower total indicates higher structural risk to both fans and studios. Scores are our assessment based on Filoni’s track record, industry reporting through late 2025/early 2026, and macro trends in theatrical & streaming markets.

Originality — How fresh is the concept relative to existing Star Wars IP? (10 = extremely original)
Franchise fit — Does the idea sit naturally inside Star Wars lore and core themes? (10 = perfect fit)
Director pedigree — Does Filoni (or a rumored director) have demonstrated success with this material? (10 = proven track record)
Fan risk/reward — How likely is the project to galvanize the fanbase versus alienate or underdeliver? (10 = big reward, low alienation)

We combine the four axes to suggest a practical takeaway: whether you should pre-order merch, set a calendar reminder for opening weekend, or wait until test screenings and first reviews.

2026 context (what’s changed and why it matters)

Two trends shape our analysis: first, audiences in 2025–2026 showed a renewed appetite for event theatrical content, but only when the marketing and creative foundations are rock solid. Second, streaming consolidation and cost-conscious viewers pushed Lucasfilm to consider which projects must be theatrically driven and which should live on streaming platforms. Filoni's deep roots in animation and long-form TV storytelling give him a creative edge — he’s built fan trust through Clone Wars, Rebels, and The Mandalorian — but theatrical film-making is a different calculus in the age of franchise fatigue. Keep both trends in mind as you review the rankings below.

Ranking: The Most Risky Filoni-Era Movies in Development (highest risk first)

1) Skywalker-era revisit (rumored legacy sequel/epilogue)

Why it's rumored: Industry chatter suggests some producers are tempted to return to Skywalker bloodlines to monetize legacy characters. Filoni’s circle includes legacy-savvy creators, so this is frequently floated as a possibility.

Originality: 2/10 — Rehashing existing family drama is inherently low-originality.
Franchise fit: 7/10 — It fits thematically but risks feeling redundant.
Director pedigree: 6/10 — Filoni understands character arcs but has less experience delivering large-scale theatrical finales.
Fan risk/reward: 2/10 — High potential for backlash and factionalism; small upside unless executed flawlessly.

Total: 17/40 — Very risky.

Why this is #1 in risk: The Skywalker name is both a golden goose and a land mine. In 2026’s polarized fan climate, a mishandled legacy sequel can fracture the community, kill goodwill, and underperform commercially unless it feels essential. Practical advice: if you’re skeptical, wait for early critic and community reactions before buying premium tickets or limited-edition merch.

2) Live-action Rebels/Thrawn adaptation (rumored)

Why it's rumored: Filoni created Rebels and orchestrated the return of Thrawn in animation. Fans have long asked for a live-action treatment of those characters; executives see recognizable IP with an avid fanbase.

Originality: 4/10 — It adapts beloved material rather than introducing something wholly new.
Franchise fit: 9/10 — Naturally aligned with Filoni’s strengths and the wider canon.
Director pedigree: 8/10 — Filoni’s stewardship of those characters in animation is a major advantage.
Fan risk/reward: 3/10 — Fans of the original property are protective; a poor adaptation could spark a backlash and fragment the animated-to-live-action audience.

Total: 24/40 — High risk, high reward.

Why this ranks high: A well-made Rebels film could be a breakthrough, but converting loyal animated fans into theatrical ticket buyers is unpredictable. Actionable tip: Follow reputable outlets (Lucasfilm press releases, Variety, trade reporting) rather than leaking rumor threads to gauge whether this is aiming for theaters or streaming — that will change the risk calculus.

3) New Jedi Order / Original Saga (rumored Filoni-led original saga)

Why it's rumored: Filoni has repeatedly signaled interest in new characters, and execs want a fresh saga that departs from Skywalker lineage.

Originality: 9/10 — Brand-new Jedi orders and myth arcs are the most original of the bunch.
Franchise fit: 7/10 — Thematically coherent, but originality can alienate casual viewers who prefer legacy anchors.
Director pedigree: 7/10 — Filoni excels at long-form character building; film-scale spectacle is less proven.
Fan risk/reward: 4/10 — High long-term upside but short-term box office risk if audiences don’t connect to unknown leads.

Total: 27/40 — Moderately risky but with big upside.

Why it’s risky: Original sagas are critically important for the franchise’s longevity, but they require meticulous world-building + star casting + marketing. Practical move for fans: support early screenings and social campaigns if you love the direction — but don’t buy the expensive collector’s bundle until critics validate it. If you want to see how creators are using short-form content to amplify discovery, look at work on short clips and festival discovery as a model for building word-of-mouth.

4) Ahsoka feature (rumored)

Why it's rumored: Ahsoka (a Filoni creation in animation who became a live-action lead) is one of the most popular modern characters. A film feels natural to some, but her biggest appearances have been on streaming TV.

Originality: 5/10 — She’s a developed character, but a film could offer new narrative stakes.
Franchise fit: 10/10 — Perfect fit; the character is deeply embedded in Filoni-era canon.
Director pedigree: 9/10 — Filoni & team know her intimately.
Fan risk/reward: 5/10 — Fans love Ahsoka, but shifting a TV epic to cinema risks pacing and tonal issues.

Total: 29/40 — Lower risk relative to the top three; mainly a distribution/presentation challenge.

Why this ranks here: Ahsoka is arguably the safest creative bet in terms of trust, but the biggest risk is format. In 2026, streaming-first characters moving to theatrical release must be retooled for a different audience. Actionable advice: If you’re an Ahsoka fan, petition for a limited theatrical plus streaming model or early streaming windows — that hybrid approach is increasingly common post-2025. Consider how pop-up immersive events or live Q&As can bridge streaming-first audiences to theatrical premieres.

5) Experimental Anthology or Filoni-curated anthology film

Why it's rumored: Filoni’s anthology sensibility (short arcs, character vignettes, TV-to-film cross-pollination) makes an anthology film or interconnected one-off theatrical experiments plausible.

Originality: 8/10 — Anthology formats are creative and rare in blockbuster franchises.
Franchise fit: 6/10 — Star Wars mythology supports vignettes, but theatrical audiences may prefer single coherent narratives.
Director pedigree: 8/10 — Filoni is a strong curator of multi-thread stories.
Fan risk/reward: 6/10 — This could delight hardcore fans, but casual viewers may be left cold.

Total: 28/40 — Creative and medium risk.

Why this is a safer creative gamble: Anthologies can be used as testing grounds for characters and concepts with minimal franchise damage. Actionable move: Treat early anthology offerings as community lab sessions — if you like an idea, amplify it on podcasts and fan boards and support conversation economics to help studios see organic demand.

6) Clone Wars live-action adaptation (rumored)

Why it's rumored: Filoni co-created and shepherded Clone Wars for years. There’s often buzz about adapting fan-favorite arcs for film.

Originality: 3/10 — Mostly adaptation.
Franchise fit: 10/10 — Fit is strong; these stories deepen canon and will excite core fans.
Director pedigree: 9/10 — Filoni knows the material inside-out.
Fan risk/reward: 6/10 — Fans may celebrate a faithful adaptation; commercial draw beyond devotees is uncertain.

Total: 28/40 — Low-to-moderate risk.

Why this is less risky: A faithful, well-marketed Clone Wars film could consolidate fan goodwill and attract curious mainstream audiences if positioned as a major event. Practical tip: Watch casting notices and trailer edits carefully — a film that leans into spectacle and accessible character arcs will perform better than a niche, serialized retread. Studios often support these with targeted local events and micro-experiences; look to the growing playbooks for micro-events and fan commerce when planning viewing parties and merch drops.

7) Filoni-directed animated theatrical feature (rumored)

Why it's rumored: Filoni is an acclaimed animation auteur; moving him to a theatrical animated feature would play to strengths and open new revenue streams.

Originality: 7/10 — Can be very original while staying in the Star Wars aesthetic.
Franchise fit: 8/10 — Filoni’s animation work has already shaped modern canon.
Director pedigree: 10/10 — This is Filoni’s wheelhouse.
Fan risk/reward: 7/10 — Fans may love a high-quality animated film, and it’s lower-stakes commercially.

Total: 32/40 — Low risk.

Why this is one of the safest bets: Animated theatrical features are a natural fit for Filoni and leverage existing audience goodwill without demanding sky-high box office. Actionable advice: If an animated film is announced, expect it to become an early community favorite — organizing screenings, watch parties, and small curated pop-ups (see micro-event retail strategies) is a smart way to support it and create shared experiences.

8) The Mandalorian & Grogu movie (announced/confirmed)

Why it’s different: According to reporting in January 2026, the Mandalorian & Grogu movie is one of the projects already moving forward under Filoni’s stewardship. This is the least risky in creative terms because the property has already proven itself across TV seasons and spin-offs.

Originality: 4/10 — It continues known characters and themes.
Franchise fit: 10/10 — Natural fit and established fanbase.
Director pedigree: 10/10 — Filoni and team are intimately tied to these characters.
Fan risk/reward: 9/10 — High reward if the film channels the best elements of the series.

Total: 33/40 — Lowest risk among the listed items.

Why this is least risky: This property has already been stress-tested, and Filoni’s hand increases confidence. Practical play: mark your calendar for theatrical and streaming window announcements; if you’re a collector, limited merch tied to theatrical release will likely be safe purchases. Studios may test demand with pop-up activations and experiential marketing — see case studies on pop-up merchandising and design like designing pop-up merch.

Practical takeaways for fans & creators (actionable advice)

Don’t pre-spend for hype: For high-risk projects (Skywalker revisit, Rebels movie), wait for previews, critic reactions, and audience test screenings before buying collector-tier bundles.
Support hybrid release models: In 2026, hybrid theatrical + streaming windows protect both the event nature of big films and the accessibility fans crave. Lobby studios and use social channels to push for hybrid access if a project concerns you. Small-scale events and viral micro-events are often used to bridge formats.
Vet rumors against trusted outlets: Use Lucasfilm press, Variety, Deadline, and Forbes for confirmed news. Treat anonymous social leaks as noise until corroborated.
Engage constructively: If you love a risky project, organize watch parties, podcasts, and curated essays that explain why it works — bottom-up fan momentum moves markets more than angry pile-ons. Consider hosting a live Q&A or panel (see tips for hosting live Q&A nights).
Follow Filoni’s playbook: He shines with character-focused, serialized storytelling. Expect better outcomes when a project leans into that strength rather than trying to be a spectacle-only tentpole. If you’re helping promote a project, short-form clips and community-driven micro-docs (example case studies: repurposing live streams) can be powerful and lower-risk ways to test audience appetite.

What to watch for in 2026 press cycles

Official Lucasfilm announcements that specify distribution plans (theatrical vs streaming) — this materially changes risk for each project.
First-look footage and trailers — tone and editing choices reveal whether a project is being polished for mainstream theatrical audiences. Short-form promotional strategies and festival discovery techniques are increasingly relevant (see short-clip strategies).
Trade reporting on budgets and marketing spend — low-budget experiments signal different fan risk profiles than billion-dollar tentpoles. For understanding how agencies and brands disclose media deals, see discussions on transparency in media.
Casting decisions — established stars reduce commercial risk but can raise fan skepticism if they alter beloved character interpretations.

Community voice: a fan’s perspective

“I trust Filoni with new stories more than with retreads. If he’s doing originals, I’ll show up — but not if it’s another Skywalker cash-in.” — @FanPodcaster (community quote)

Final verdict: what to bet on and what to watch warily

If you’re building a watchlist in 2026: prioritize projects that align with Filoni’s strengths (character-driven arcs, animation-adjacent storytelling, serialized world-building). Be cautious with legacy retreads and any film that tries to be a franchise reset in a single sitting — those have the highest structural risk in today’s market. For on-the-ground fan commerce and event tactics that amplify releases, explore micro-event playbooks and merch design resources like micro-event retail strategies and designing pop-up merch.

Call to action

Join our community vote: tell us which Filoni-era project you’d bet your credits on. Share this ranking on your podcast or social feed, and sign up for our newsletter to get an evidence-based update the moment Lucasfilm makes a formal announcement. We’ll track development changes, first reviews, and fan sentiment so you don’t miss the moments that matter.

Subscribe, vote, and keep your lightsaber ready — 2026 is where the next generation of Star Wars will prove itself.

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